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CHURCHILL DOWNS "EXPERT SELECTIONS" FOR SATURDAY - 6/17/2017

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  • CHURCHILL DOWNS "EXPERT SELECTIONS" FOR SATURDAY - 6/17/2017

    This chart is in Expert Order which is the combined wisdom of several top professional handicappers. This gives us a great basis of comparison to the Morning Line, which is one person, usually the Track racing office. While most major tracks create a very good line, it is subject to the opinions and bias of one person rather that the collective wisdom of several crack pro's.

    I am giving you the entire field allowing you to follow the betting on all horses and see where the ML and the Expert's disagree. This is your advantage, your edge, having an objective way to evaluate the ML. You can see what is influencing the Public betting. Depending on the wagering platform you use, you can sort the field in Betting Odds Order so you can see which order is preferred by the betting public.

    The advantage in putting the chart in Expert Order is that it shows you horses that the Expert's like that receive little ML Support and horses the ML likes who are being ignored by the Expert's. It is important that you focus on the Top 3 Expert picks as well as the Morning Line top 3 choices as this is where most winners are found. Value Races are those races where the Top 3 Expert choices are not the same as the Top 3 Morning Line Picks.

    For those who are Exotic players (Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta) and Multi-Race players (DD, Pk-3, 4, 5, 6), the Pro picks are critical to achieving big payouts because the Experts combine longshots with ML favorites. Boxing Pro picks will get you bigger payoffs especially if the top favorites don't win. Keying on 1 or 2 horses on Top with the other contenders underneath will make bets more affordable. If you have a firm opinion, using ALL underneath in one position can help you cash a monster ticket if a big longshot crashes the board. If you are playing Multi-Race bets you should pay close attention to the top 3 horses if you want to cash larger tickets. Don't disregard highly thought of Expert choices just because the Morning Line dismisses them.

    Examine the chart first before you monitor the actual betting. It will help you understand what is influencing the betting. It is just as important to pay attention to who is not getting bet as well as those taking money. Look for horses that bet below or at their Pro Odds. Give extra credit if they get bet below their ML odds as well, but horses do not need to reach their ML odds to be "Live". Stables are very careful not to tip their hands. "Smart Money" doesn't want to cause a stampede in the betting on their horse.

    Check back 30-60 minutes before the first race for Scratches to be updated. It will move up horses into the top 3 that were placed lower before scratches. I will also update the Pro Picks to remove scratched horses and add new contenders. While every effort is made to avoid mistakes, double check program numbers to make sure they are correct.

    Good Luck!






    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 1
    PRO PICKS: 2-5-7-1-8
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    2 Audrey's Double 3 9/5
    5 Play the Break 2 3
    7 Tizthesound 7/2 6
    1 Scatmeifucan 10 8
    8 Leeloo's Journey 10 8
    10 Double First 3 10 SCRATCHED
    4 Cause You Can 12 10
    9 Okbyecya 7/2 20 SCRATCHED
    6 I. Damiana 8 20
    3 Por Favor 12 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 2
    PRO PICKS: 5-1-3-6-4
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    5 High Multiple 5/2 9/5
    1 Hardly Home 3 7/2
    3 Dr. Philan 6 5
    6 Silver Wraith 3 6
    4 Little B 7/2 8
    2 Benediction 8 8
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 3
    PRO PICKS: 1-4-2-3-6
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    1 Mesoma 2 2
    4 Cerro 5/2 3
    2 Candy Ruby 3 3
    3 Toasting Master 7/2 6
    6 Discreetness 10 20
    5 Whyruawesome 15 20 SCRATCHED
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 4
    PRO PICKS: 9-8-4-10-2
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    9 Kismet's Heels 7/2 2
    8 Kasseopia 4 2
    4 Race Me Home 6 5
    10 Space Mountain 10 5
    2 Fifth Title 4 10
    3 Mucho Macho Bets 8 20
    6 Sixty Five 8 20
    1 Paddy Not Patty 10 20
    5 Ingadore 12 20
    7 Mongol G 20 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 5 - MATT WINN (G3) $100,000
    PRO PICKS: 2-3-1-5-6
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    2 McCraken 4/5 7/5
    3 Colonelsdarktemper 4 5
    1 Excitations 9/2 5
    5 Aquamarine 5 6
    6 Society Beau 12 10
    4 Mo's Mojo 10 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 6 - WISE DAN (G2) $200,000
    PRO PICKS: 5-7-2-3-1
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    5 Kasaqui 6 2
    7 Pleuven 3 5/2
    2 Bondurant 8 5
    3 Thatcher Street 4 8
    1 Security Risk 5 8
    6 Conquest Panthera 6 8
    4 Chocolate Ride 5 20
    8 Blofeld 10 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 7 - FLEUR DE LIS HANDICAP (G2) $200,000
    PRO PICKS: 1-5-3-7-2
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    1 Forever Unbridled 4/5 8/5
    5 Big World 6 3
    3 Carrumba 6 6
    7 Apologynotaccepted 15 6
    2 Walkabout 10 8
    9 Weep No More 10 8
    6 Romantic Vision 8 20
    8 Tiger Moth 12 20
    4 Crooked Stick 30 20 SCRATCHED
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 8 - STEPHEN FOSTER (G1) $500,000
    PRO PICKS: 3-4-2-5-8
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    3 Gun Runner 4/5 1/1
    4 Honorable Duty 6 4
    2 Breaking Lucky 8 6
    5 Mo Tom 20 6
    8 Stanford 5 8
    1 Bird Song 6 20
    6 Hawaakom 12 20
    7 Texas Chrome 12 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 9 - REGRET (G3) $100,000
    PRO PICKS: 4-2-12-5-11
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    4 Proctor's Ledge 7/2 3/2
    2 Sweeping Paddy 4 5/2
    12 Chubby Star 5 8
    5 Like a Hurricane 12 8
    11 Starr Bear 8 10
    10 Fizzy Friday 10 10
    8 Savannah Belle 12 10
    9 Sameeha 8 20
    7 Summer Luck 10 20
    1 Blame the Law 15 20
    3 La Manta Gris 15 20
    6 Anothertequilashot 30 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 10
    PRO PICKS: 3-9-6-5-12
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    3 Miss Kentucky 5/2 6/5
    2 What a Star 3 4 SCRATCHED
    9 Golden Amber 6 6
    6 Thirteen Songs 15 6
    5 Missseventhirteen 8 8
    12 Socata 15 10
    4 Sweet Tatum 10 20
    1 Curvymissmiller 12 20 SCRATCHED
    10 Belletta 12 20
    11 Mellwood Summer 12 20
    8 Urbane Legend 20 20 SCRATCHED
    7 Numbers Game 30 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 11
    PRO PICKS: 8-9-3-10-1
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    8 Portal 5/2 7/5
    9 Tapsolute 3 6
    3 Leading Cause 7/2 6
    10 Fireball Shot 12 6
    11 Union Salute 12 6 SCRATCHED
    2 Bourbon Country 8 10 SCRATCHED
    1 Sevier 12 20
    5 Unbridled Rebel 15 20
    6 Hard Fought 15 20
    7 Harlan's Vador 20 20
    4 Ford'spowerstroke 30 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    SANTA ANITA RACE 6 - HONEYMOON (G2) $200,000
    PRO PICKS: 4-5-2-1-3
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    4 Sircat Sally 3/5 7/5
    5 Beau Recall 4 3
    2 Pacific Wind 9/2 4
    1 Zaffinah 6 6
    3 Tap It All 12 20
    6 La Force 12 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    SANTA ANITA RACE 9 - SUMMERTIME OAKS (G2) $200,000
    PRO PICKS: 8-6-3-7-4
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    8 Noted and Quoted 3 5/2
    6 Faypien 7/2 3
    3 It Tiz Well 7/2 7/2
    7 Majestic Quality 5 5
    5 Selcourt 6 8 SCRATCHED
    4 Sheza Chattykat 15 8
    9 Mopotism 6 20
    2 Spooky Woods 15 20
    1 Goseecal 30 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    Last edited by smartmoneyhorses; 06-17-2017, 05:28 PM. Reason: SCRATCHES UPDATED
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