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CHURCHILL DOWNS "EXPERT SELECTIONS" FOR FRIDAY - 6/16/2017

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  • CHURCHILL DOWNS "EXPERT SELECTIONS" FOR FRIDAY - 6/16/2017

    This chart is in Expert Order which is the combined wisdom of several top professional handicappers. This gives us a great basis of comparison to the Morning Line, which is one person, usually the Track racing office. While most major tracks create a very good line, it is subject to the opinions and bias of one person rather that the collective wisdom of several crack pro's.

    I am giving you the entire field allowing you to follow the betting on all horses and see where the ML and the Expert's disagree. This is your advantage, your edge, having an objective way to evaluate the ML. You can see what is influencing the Public betting. Depending on the wagering platform you use, you can sort the field in Betting Odds Order so you can see which order is preferred by the betting public.

    The advantage in putting the chart in Expert Order is that it shows you horses that the Expert's like that receive little ML Support and horses the ML likes who are being ignored by the Expert's. It is important that you focus on the Top 3 Expert picks as well as the Morning Line top 3 choices as this is where most winners are found. Value Races are those races where the Top 3 Expert choices are not the same as the Top 3 Morning Line Picks.

    For those who are Exotic players (Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta) and Multi-Race players (DD, Pk-3, 4, 5, 6), the Pro picks are critical to achieving big payouts because the Experts combine longshots with ML favorites. Boxing Pro picks will get you bigger payoffs especially if the top favorites don't win. Keying on 1 or 2 horses on Top with the other contenders underneath will make bets more affordable. If you have a firm opinion, using ALL underneath in one position can help you cash a monster ticket if a big longshot crashes the board. If you are playing Multi-Race bets you should pay close attention to the top 3 horses if you want to cash larger tickets. Don't disregard highly thought of Expert choices just because the Morning Line dismisses them.

    Examine the chart first before you monitor the actual betting. It will help you understand what is influencing the betting. It is just as important to pay attention to who is not getting bet as well as those taking money. Look for horses that bet below or at their Pro Odds. Give extra credit if they get bet below their ML odds as well, but horses do not need to reach their ML odds to be "Live". Stables are very careful not to tip their hands. "Smart Money" doesn't want to cause a stampede in the betting on their horse.

    Check back 30-60 minutes before the first race for Scratches to be updated. It will move up horses into the top 3 that were placed lower before scratches. I will also update the Pro Picks to remove scratched horses and add new contenders. While every effort is made to avoid mistakes, double check program numbers to make sure they are correct.

    Good Luck!





    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 1
    PRO PICKS: 3-6-7-2-1
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    3 Kentucky Dancer 5/2 2
    6 Ritzy Lass 7/2 5/2
    7 Rose to Glory 5 3
    2 Dustem Carolina 4 8
    1 Big Red Seven 5 10
    5 Bottle Walk 4 20
    4 Hold Me Tight 15 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 2
    PRO PICKS: 6-4-5-2-7
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    6 Cheyenne Blues 8/5 1/2
    4 Gracequinnannamady 4 7/2
    5 Eufaula 5 8
    2 Disones Pretty 6 8
    7 Miss Chatty Cat 8 10
    1 Rilla 5 20
    3 Equulei 10 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 3
    PRO PICKS: 2-3-5-7-6
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    2 Sunny's Funny 9/5 7/2
    3 Southern Moon 4 7/2
    5 Reality Queen 7/2 4
    7 Lady O'Toole 4 5
    6 Lawless 12 6
    1 Hot N Sweet @ 8 8
    1A Kieran Street @ 8 8 SCRATCHED
    4 Mileva 10 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 4
    PRO PICKS: 7-8-2-3-5
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    7 Encrypt 5/2 2
    8 United Stand 6 5
    2 Tipsy Kitten 7/2 6
    3 Hardly Seen Slim 5 6
    5 American Ride 20 6
    12 Mascarpone 5 8 SCRATCHED
    9 Workingforaliving 12 8
    1 Santa Americana 5 10
    4 Latimer 15 10
    13 Bourbon Country 6 20 SCRATCHED
    6 Tapizone 12 20
    10 Mark for Good 15 20
    11 Jumpin Jack Cash 20 20 SCRATCHED
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 5
    PRO PICKS: 5-4-2-6-3
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    5 Ironclad 2 3/2
    4 Rich Daddy 5/2 7/2
    2 Epic Journey 10 4
    6 Raagheb 3 8
    3 Handiwork 4 8
    1 Albano 8 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 6
    PRO PICKS: 4-5-9-8-10
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    4 Oathkeeper 4 7/5
    5 Perfect Execution 10 5
    9 Hollywood Critic 9/2 8
    8 Mister Maestro 5 8
    12 Go Navy Go 5 8 SCRATCHED
    10 Sabbatarian 15 8
    3 Ready Strike 6 10 SCRATCHED
    6 Attraction 6 10
    2 Halloween Horror 12 10
    1 Knights Key 6 20
    7 Elitch 10 20 SCRATCHED
    11 I'm Ready to Roll 15 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 7
    PRO PICKS: 2-1-7-3-4
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    2 Right On By 5/2 1/1
    1 Miss Helen 3 7/2
    7 Parking Ticket 7/2 8
    3 Fancy Pinstripes 4 8
    4 Model by Artie 8 10
    5 In Focus 8 10
    6 Benchmark Babe 10 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 8
    PRO PICKS: 8-9-1-3-4
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    8 Maniacal 5/2 2
    9 Shadow Rock 7/2 7/2
    2 Mesoma 8 4 SCRATCHED
    1 Control Stake 8 6
    3 Wagon Boss 12 6
    12 Manhattan Mischief 5/2 8 SCRATCHED
    4 Mongol Bull 8 20
    7 Nun the Less 8 20
    5 While Ye May 10 20
    6 Element 12 20
    10 Alaskan Prince 12 20
    11 Nifty Fifty 30 20 SCRATCHED
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    CHURCHILL RACE 9
    PRO PICKS: 8-2-5-6-7
    PG # Horse ML Odds PRO Odds Betting Odds
    8 Spicoli 5/2 5/2
    2 Conquest Goinggone 3 3
    5 Oriental Crown 6 6
    6 Start a War 10 6
    7 Empire Taker 10 6
    1 P J's Awesome 10 8
    4 Power Plant 10 20 SCRATCHED
    11 Slope 12 20
    10 Coach Moore 15 20
    12 Castlefinn 15 20
    3 Red Blue and True 30 20
    9 Buddy Bud 30 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** *************** *****************
    Last edited by smartmoneyhorses; 06-16-2017, 04:39 PM. Reason: SCRATCHES UPDATED
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